Feb 06, 2014 | SCorrigan | 511 views
Team Progress
On Tuesday I wrote about top ten lists and tried to put in perspective total numbers versus a more accurate per game basis. Still, those lists by nature, are individualistic and this is a TEAM game. I thought then that it would be appropriate to discuss where the teams are at this stage of the season with tournaments and year end playoffs looming for everyone.
The overall win-loss-tie record for the division is 60-51-11. That equates to a healthy 0.537 winning percentage. It also means we have performed quite well in exhibition and tournament games. In fact, the record for our teams in such matches so far are 11-3-1, which is a lofty 0.767 winning percentage. The Penguins reached the finals in the Wayne Gretzky HL Tournament and the Blackhawks reached the finals in the North London Tournament.
Off course, even a cursory glance at the standings show there are teams having a great deal of success and teams that are struggling a great deal. However, wins and losses can mask a great many details. Consider the Devils and Hurricanes, teams at opposite ends of the standings. The Devils are a most impressive 13-3-2 already this season and have had a lock on first place since the season began. The Hurricanes in contrast are 1-16-1 and mired in the cellar. There is decided difference when you look at games decided by a goal or less. The Hurricanes are 1-4-1 while the Devils, who have played half their games in such close matches, are a 5-2-2. Significantly, the Hurricanes have led, been tied or trailed by a single goal late in to the second period in over half their matches but games have gotten away from them in the third.
The records and winning percentages by teams are as follows:
1) Blackhawks 23-5-1 0.839
2) Devils 13-3-2 0.778
3) Penguins 12-9-2 0.565
4) Sharks 7-7-3 0.500
5) Senators 4-11-2 0.294
6) Hurricanes 1-16-1 0.083
Four out of six teams have winning records. As of next week the Blackhawks, Devils, Sharks and Senators are all participating in two different divisions in a London tournament; the Devils then have a second tournament in March; and the Hurricanes have begun exhibition games with Kitchener squads. Thus the totals games will rise dramatically for several teams and if our success as a division holds true, the winning percentages will improve. Yet it also means results could take a turn southward, especially for the Blackhawks and Devils since it is difficult to maintain such high percentages all season long - they could both go an excellent 3-1 in a tournament and see their percentages decline.
The results of the teams can be analyzed in a different way, namely the gap between goals for and goals against. Indeed their is a direct and obvious correlation to the team records.
1) Blackhawks 6.36 GF vs 2.82 GA
2) Devils 4.44 GF vs 3.06 GF
3) Penguins 4.52 GF vs 4.21 GA
4) Sharks 4.82 GF vs 4.35 GA
5) Senators 3.82 GF vs 5.47 GA
6) Hurricanes 3.06 GF vs 7.33 GA
The league average, for comparison sake, is 4.66 GF vs 4.38 GA. Teams 2-4 above almost mirror that.
The Blackhawk numbers are relatively consistent on the offensive and defensive front in games versus Cambridge and non Cambridge teams - their success and the Penguins success is what leads me to believe all the teams will have success in non league games. (We have a strong talent pool).
The Devils and Senators basically have inverted records and it is easily explained by the Devils being +1.38 while the Senators are -1.65. The Devils offence is close to the league average, like the Penguins and Sharks, so it is easy to see how defence, goaltending and close checking, which has kept their goals against down all season, has truly impacted their record. It is an old adage but defence wins games. The winning percentages follow the exact same order as the GA (and does not follow the GF).
I have noted above the fact the Devils have remarkably good results in one goal or less games, but what about blow outs in our division? If you consider blow outs games where the score hits double digits, there have been remarkably very few of these this season. The Blackhawks have done it three times (including once against a Waterloo squad), the Penguins and Sharks once a piece. If you take out those three games for the Blackhawks their GF drops sharply half a goal to 5.8, despite having played so many games already. Regrettably the only team on the flip side of that, meaning they gave up 10 or more goals, has been the Hurricanes and this has happened on four occasions. (Yet again, 2/4 times they were tied half way through the second). If you exclude those 4 games from the Hurricanes track record their GA drops 5.92 while their GF remains relatively unchanged at 3.00.
Still, I tend to consider blow outs from a more narrower perspective: any game where the goal differential is 4 or more. That is not to say that the game play in such games is invariably unequal. The Christmas tournament is absolute proof that disparate scores do not reflect the actual puck possession and scoring chances. I just use the 4 goal margin from a score sheet as a benchmark. This kind of disparity has happened in 30 of 122 games, but only 24 times in games exclusively between CMHA opponents. That means blowouts occur in less than 1 out of every 5 games. That is pretty much in line with the results of this age group from their Minor Atom and Novice years. I suspect it is similar in all age groups.